Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, has said that the conditions that bolstered Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi’s performance in the 2023 general elections are unlikely to reoccur in the 2027 polls.
Speaking on Channels Television’s Sunday Politics, Keyamo identified three core elements—religious sentiment, regional allegiance, and youth-driven enthusiasm—as the key demographic factors that contributed to Obi’s showing in 2023, but asserted that these dynamics have since lost momentum.
“Three demographic factors delivered Peter Obi in 2023, but the three will collapse,” Keyamo stated.
He argued that Obi gained significant support from Christian voters, as he was the only major Christian candidate among predominantly Muslim contenders.
“The other candidates were Muslims, and so there was only one Christian candidate, and the Christians went to one candidate,” he said.
Keyamo also pointed to ethnic solidarity within the South-East as a major factor in Obi’s regional dominance.
“The South-East felt cheated, so the South-East went to one point because of the Igbo man,” he said.
He further highlighted the role of the “Obidient” movement—comprised largely of young Nigerians—who, disenchanted with traditional politics, rallied around Obi due to his younger age and perceived outsider status.
“The Obidients, young Nigerians who felt they were angry, they wanted a younger person and all of that because the other candidates were older than him,” he explained.
However, the APC chieftain maintained that these forces are unlikely to align in the same way ahead of 2027, especially if plans for a Peter Obi–Atiku Abubakar alliance materialise.
“This so-called ADC, in 2027, what they are working on is to bring Peter Obi and Atiku together to join those numbers and beat our over eight million votes. Let me tell you why it is wrong,” Keyamo argued.
He expressed skepticism about Obi’s ability to make inroads in northern Nigeria, where the APC, he said, maintains strong grassroots structures and holds key governorships.
“If you put Peter Obi this time as president, he cannot penetrate the north. We have our structures in the north. We have governors and our structures in the north,” he said.
Despite acknowledging the opposition’s capacity to spark greater political engagement, Keyamo insisted that the ruling party still enjoys a clear advantage in both numbers and organisation.
“They are going nowhere in terms of demography. I like what is happening; they are putting us on our toes; it is going to make us work harder, but the numbers are not looking good for them,” he concluded.
