President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has projected that Nigeria’s inflation rate will fall below 10 per cent by 2026, expressing optimism that the trend will translate into improved living standards and stronger economic growth.
The projection was conveyed in a statement by the Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Bayo Onanuga, while commending corporate Nigeria and other stakeholders in the capital market for pushing the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) past the ₦100 trillion market capitalisation milestone.
“Indeed, inflation is likely to fall below 10 per cent before the end of this year, leading to improved living standards and accelerated GDP growth. The year 2026 promises to be an epochal year for delivering prosperity to all Nigerians,” Onanuga said.
Data from the NGX show that market capitalisation closed at ₦101.80 trillion on Monday, surpassing the ₦100 trillion mark for the first time. Market capitalisation represents the total value of outstanding shares of companies listed on the exchange.
President Tinubu described the achievement as an inspiration for investors in the money and capital markets, urging Nigerians to deepen their participation in the local economy. He assured that “2026 will yield even greater returns as his administration’s economic reforms continue to deliver stronger outcomes.”
According to Onanuga, “With the NGX crossing the historic ₦100 trillion market capitalisation mark, the country is witnessing the birth of a new economic reality and rejuvenation.”
He noted that while many global markets struggled with stagnation or weak recovery in 2025, the Nigerian market recorded strong growth. “The NGX All-Share Index was on the ascent. It closed 2025 with a 51.19% return, higher than the 37.65% recorded in 2024. This performance ranks among the highest in the world. Year-to-date returns have significantly outpaced the S&P 500, the FTSE 100, and even many of our emerging-market peers in the BRICS+ group,” he said.
Onanuga added that investor confidence was being reinforced by the breadth of growth across sectors. “Nigeria is no longer a frontier market to be ignored—it is now a compelling destination where value is being discovered. As the stock market reflects the entire economy, its stellar performance is a significant indicator of the country’s economic health and the confidence investors have in our economy.”
He further highlighted strong performances by listed companies, noting that “from blue-chip industrial giants that have localised their supply chains, to a banking sector that has demonstrated resilience and technological innovation, Nigerian companies are proving that the country can deliver strong returns on investment.”
President Tinubu said his administration was only at the beginning of its reform agenda, adding that the pipeline for new listings on the NGX remained robust. “More indigenous energy firms, tech unicorns, telecoms, and infrastructure-heavy entities are seeking to access the public market to fund their expansion. As these firms are listed, they will boost market capitalisation and deepen democratic ownership of the Nigerian economy,” he said.
He stressed that the strong stock market performance was not being viewed in isolation. “We are not celebrating the superlative stock market performance in isolation. We are also celebrating the microeconomic effects of our reforms. After the initial headwinds that followed our reforms, we are finally seeing a bend in the inflation curve,” Tinubu said.
The president’s inflation outlook contrasts with the Central Bank of Nigeria’s projection of 12.9 per cent inflation in its 2026 economic outlook. However, Onanuga attributed the improving outlook to tighter monetary policy and the discontinuation of distortionary ‘Ways and Means’ financing, which he said had restored stability to the naira.
“Furthermore, investments in the agriculture sector have contributed to a consistent decline in inflation over the past eight months. From a 24-month high of 34.8% in December 2024, inflation decelerated to 14.45% as of November 2025, with projections indicating it will reach 12% in 2026,” he said.
Onanuga also pointed to improvements in Nigeria’s external position, describing the current account as a key measure of economic health. “In 2024, Nigeria posted a surplus of $16 billion. According to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), our current account balance is projected to rise to $18.81 billion in 2026, up from $16.94 billion in 2025,” he said.
He added that export growth was gaining momentum, noting that “non-oil exports surged by 48% by the third quarter of 2025, totalling ₦9.2 trillion. Exports to Africa alone rose by 97% to ₦4.9 trillion. Manufacturing exports increased by 67% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025.”
According to the presidency, Nigeria’s foreign reserves have crossed the $45 billion mark, strengthening the Central Bank’s capacity to maintain stability. “The naira has stabilised, moving away from the volatility that once fuelled speculation. The Central Bank of Nigeria, in its latest outlook, projects foreign reserves will cross the $50 billion threshold in the first quarter of 2026,” Onanuga said.
President Tinubu also highlighted progress in infrastructure development, citing expanding rail networks, the completion of major arterial roads, the revitalisation of ports, and flagship projects such as the Lagos–Calabar and Sokoto–Badagry superhighways, which he said were driving long-term economic growth.
