Nigeria may resume the issuance of petrol and diesel import permits as early as mid-February, with the first approvals for 2026 expected to help avert a potential tightening of fuel supply following a temporary regulatory pause by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), THISDAY learnt on Thursday.
Industry sources quoted by Argus said the NMDPRA is expected to begin approving new import licences later this month or, at the latest, by early March. The move would mark the first approvals for 2026 after a suspension aimed at restricting imports to volumes required only to cover gaps in domestic refinery output.
The sources attributed the delay partly to leadership changes at the authority following the exit of its former Chief Executive, Farouk Ahmed, on December 17, noting that the transition slowed internal decision-making in the early weeks of the year.
Under existing practice, the NMDPRA issues refined product import permits quarterly, with approvals typically valid for three months. This has raised questions about how the framework will be applied if permits are issued nearly halfway into the first quarter.
Market dynamics have also shifted, with crude receipts at the Dangote Refinery reportedly falling to about 250,000 barrels per day in January from roughly 350,000 bpd in December, a 16-month low. The decline suggests reduced run rates at the facility’s crude distillation unit, increasing the likelihood of refined product shortfalls that imports may need to address. Argus previously reported maintenance activities on key processing units, including the petrol-producing Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracking (RFCC) unit and the Crude Distillation Unit (CDU).
Although petrol demand eased during the Christmas and early January holidays, traders said tightening domestic supply and higher refinery asking prices have renewed interest in imported cargoes. Asking prices for petrol rose by about 14 per cent to N799 per litre on January 27, after earlier declines to N699 per litre in December, making imported fuel more competitive in recent trading sessions.
Market participants said new import permits would enable marketers to supplement domestic supply while the regulator continues to prioritise local refining.
Meanwhile, the Dangote Refinery has warned that petrol pump prices could approach N1,000 per litre and impose an additional annual cost of about N1.75 trillion on the economy if marketers increasingly rely on coastal transportation rather than gantry loading for fuel evacuation and pass the cost on to consumers.
In a post on X on Thursday, the refinery said rising coastal logistics costs pose a significant risk to fuel affordability despite Nigeria’s growing domestic refining capacity. It noted that coastal transportation of petrol could add about N75 per litre to the final cost.
Dangote Refinery said gantry loading remains the most cost-efficient evacuation method as it eliminates port charges, maritime levies and vessel-related costs that do not benefit end users. These additional costs, it said, are embedded in coastal shipping and ultimately reflected in pump prices.
The company stressed that marketers are free to choose their preferred evacuation method, adding that it does not impose restrictions on the use of gantry loading or coastal shipping. However, it warned that widespread reliance on coastal logistics would have serious cost implications for the economy.
Nigeria’s average daily consumption of about 50 million litres of petrol and 14 million litres of diesel means that the additional N75 per litre associated with coastal evacuation could translate into an extra annual burden of approximately N1.752 trillion.
“Gantry loading is identified as the most cost-efficient evacuation method, as it eliminates port charges, maritime levies and vessel-related costs that do not benefit end users. Marketers are free to choose between gantry and coastal loading, and the refinery does not impose restrictions on evacuation modes.
“Coastal logistics can add about N75 per litre to petrol costs, potentially pushing PMS pump prices close to N1,000 per litre if passed on to consumers. Nigeria’s daily consumption averages about 50 million litres of PMS and 14 million litres of diesel, meaning reliance on coastal logistics could impose an additional annual cost of approximately N1.752 trillion,” the company stated.
Dangote Reaffirms Vision 2030 at Gateway Trade Fair
Separately, Dangote Industries Limited (DIL) has reiterated its commitment to its Vision 2030 growth strategy as it prepares to lead exhibitors at the 15th Gateway International Trade Fair, scheduled to hold in Ogun State.
The conglomerate, which is partnering with the Ogun State Chamber of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (OGUNCCIMA) as lead sponsor, said its participation underscores its drive to forge strategic partnerships with governments, agencies and private sector stakeholders as it targets $100 billion in annual revenue by 2030. The 2026 edition of the fair is themed “Promoting Business through Partnership.”
In a statement issued on Thursday, Group Chief Branding and Communication Officer of Dangote Group, Anthony Chiejina, said the company’s participation aligns with its long-term industrial expansion strategy focused on cross-border investments and reducing import dependence in key sectors, including energy, manufacturing and infrastructure.
Chiejina said the Vision 2030 strategy aims to position the group among the world’s top 100 companies while strengthening Africa’s industrial capacity.
He disclosed plans to expand the capacity of the group’s single-train petroleum refinery from 650,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day, increase fertiliser production from three million to 12 million metric tonnes annually, and raise cement production capacity to 90 million tonnes by 2030.
He added that all Dangote Group subsidiaries would participate in the trade fair, with products such as cement, sugar, salt, fertiliser and rice available at discounted prices. The group is also developing six large-scale rice milling plants across Kano, Jigawa, Zamfara, Niger, Kebbi and Sokoto states, with a combined capacity of 1.5 million metric tonnes annually.
Chiejina commended the Federal Government’s economic reforms, describing them as necessary for restoring stability and driving sustainable development, and praised OGUNCCIMA for choosing a theme that reflects the importance of collaboration.
Earlier, OGUNCCIMA President Niyi Oshiyemi lauded Dangote Group’s continued support for the Gateway International Trade Fair, describing the conglomerate as a major contributor to Nigeria’s industrial growth and employment generation.
The 2026 Gateway International Trade Fair is expected to attract local and international exhibitors, investors and policymakers seeking to deepen partnerships and explore business opportunities across sectors.
